Trevor Caskey.

Routine activity theory: crime needs a motivated offender and a target in the same place, with no capable guardian. Every agent here learns where the others tend to be (weighted fictitious play over 14 days) and picks a block by softmax. Send a patrol and crime falls in that block and spreads to its neighbours; when the patrol ends, the guardians' habits fade and crime drifts back, the "inverse displacement" the paper fit to Seattle, Austin and Minneapolis hot-spot data. Simplified browser re-implementation of the paper's Eqs. 4–12 (5 blocks, 50 targets, 10 offenders, 5 guardians, h = 14, α_O=.5, α_T=α_G=1). Illustrative, not calibrated to case-study data.

Theory of Planned Behavior: each fan's intent = perceived control × (a personal mix of attitude and social norm). Ads push attitude (and can backfire on fans who don't like the band), friends who warm up send referrals that move the social norm, and beliefs decay unless they're reinforced. Intent builds through the campaign and lingers after it; a headliner speaking out lifts it further, and when they post matters. In the paper, endorsing from before the campaign through to after it gave the biggest lift. Simplified browser re-implementation in the spirit of the paper (Rescorla–Wagner-style reinforcement with decay, referrals over a social network, influencer reaching 90% of agents, tickets on sale from the first announcement; failing to get one dents perceived control). Illustrative, not the published parameterisation.